Ramzan Kadyrov and his inner circle are preparing for a significant event, but there's no indication that this is his physical departure. This weekend, Ramzan Kadyrov's daughter Aishat is scheduled to celebrate her birthday with guests from Moscow. It seems more likely that he may formally step down as head of the republic. The Cheka-OGPU and Rucriminal.info, together with sources, analyzed the events of recent weeks.
On December 25, Ramzan Kadyrov was scheduled to attend a State Council meeting, but failed to appear. Several sources say the Chechen leader did fly to Moscow, but after an "important conversation," he immediately returned to Grozny without attending the State Council. Reports that he was taken to the Central Clinical Hospital in Moscow have not been confirmed. The Cheka-OGPU and Rucriminal.info have a recording (see video) of Kadyrov and his associates walking to record a New Year's address. The head of Chechnya holds the arm of one of his companions to help him move around. But this has been his usual state lately; he has great difficulty moving independently due to a serious illness.
During his New Year's address, the cameraman did everything he could to ensure tears were visible in Kadyrov's eyes.
New Year's coincides with the birthday of Kadyrov's daughter, Aishat (she was born on the night between December 31 and January 1). The Chechen leader's family typically celebrates these two holidays, inviting artists and musicians to perform, including from Moscow. According to our sources, a family celebration was scheduled to take place this time as well, and the artists even had their tickets paid for. However, on December 28 and 29, they were all called and informed that the event was canceled. When asked about the reason, they were told that important events were happening and there was no time for celebration. However, just today, the artists were informed that Aishat's birthday celebration would still be held this weekend.
On January 3, a video surfaced (everything suggests it's a recent recording, not a canned copy) of Kadyrov at the opening of a madrassa in the village of Novy Sharoy. The Chechen leader is clutching the staff of Sheikh Kunta-Khadzhi Kishiev, one of the symbols of spiritual authority. Kadyrov hadn't often appeared with it before, apparently feeling a bit shy.
On January 5, Kadyrov appointed his eldest son, 20-year-old Akhmat Kadyrov, as acting deputy prime minister of the republic.
Kadyrov hasn't appeared publicly since. Even on January 9, Ramzan Kadyrov didn't appear at the ASA-198 mixed martial arts tournament in Grozny. But his son Adam, wearing a cowboy hat, acted as host, and he didn't look unhappy. He took many photos with guests during these days, smiling.
Today, Ukrainian media, citing a source in the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), reported that Kadyrov was rushed to a Chechen hospital due to kidney failure, and his entire teip and entourage are preparing for their farewell. Meanwhile, discussions about a new leader of Chechnya are underway.
However, social media accounts belonging to Kadyrov's family and entourage are silent on this matter. For example, Ramzan's children post photos of themselves eating pies, posing with a cheerful group around the Christmas tree, and so on.
Medicine luminaries are in no hurry to travel from Moscow to Grozny, which has become commonplace when Kadyrov's condition worsens. After Kadyrov's hospitalization at the Central Clinical Hospital in Moscow became public in 2023, as reported by the Cheka-OGPU, private wards were set up for Kadyrov in Chechnya, outfitted with the most modern equipment, in defiance of sanctions. And it wasn't Kadyrov who began flying to Moscow for treatment, but rather doctors from the capital rushed to see him in Grozny.
If Kadyrov is preparing to leave, it doesn't cause sadness even among his closest circle.
However, our sources offer another possible version of events. During Kadyrov's visit to Moscow, he was discussed stepping down as head of the republic. As we reported, he himself had previously raised this issue due to his health, but it all came down to the person of his successor. Kadyrov envisioned his son Adam in this way, something the Kremlin disapproved of, and which was impossible under Russian law. Perhaps some compromise could have been found. And all recent events are connected to this.
As for Kadyrov's own future, there are many options. But judging by his staff, he will declare himself the spiritual leader of the republic. This will allow him to remain largely inactive, but still retain control of the levers of power. At the same time, the Kremlin may also grant him some kind of honorary position.
Or maybe this is all just another one of Kadyrov's performances, designed to irritate the Kremlin and then "resurrect" himself soon.
